ADI

Historical Earnings Track Record

ADI's earnings history over the last eight reported quarters is spotless: the company has beaten EPS estimates in all eight reports, producing a 100% beat rate with an average surprise of 5%. The four most recent quarters continue that streak. On May 20, 2026, ADI reported $3.09 versus the $2.89 estimate, a 6.9% beat, yet the stock fell 3.48% the next day before drifting up 5.27% over the following five sessions. On February 18, 2026, EPS came in at $2.46 against a $2.31 estimate, a 6.5% surprise, with the stock dipping 0.31% the next day and then rising 4.17% over five days. The November 25, 2025 report showed a much narrower 0.9% beat ($2.26 versus $2.24), but the stock rose 2.34% the next day and surged 10.4% over the next five sessions. The August 20, 2025 quarter delivered $2.05 versus $1.95, a 5.1% surprise, followed by a 0.85% next-day move and a 4.34% five-day drift. Across all eight quarters, the average five-day post-earnings drift is 6.04%, classified as "up." That means the directional tendency after the report has been higher, even in instances when the immediate overnight reaction was negative.

Options Flow and the August 19 Earnings Event

The next scheduled report is August 19, 2026, before the open, with the published consensus EPS estimate at $3.34. Options flow ahead of that date generally reflects dealer positioning for a binary event: upside call activity and downside hedges both tend to build as the report approaches, and implied volatility typically gets bid up into the print. The key dynamic to watch is not just the direction of the flow, but the strike clustering around current spot. At $371.86, ADI is trading below its 50-day EMA of $391.76, so any pre-earnings options positioning may be wrestling with whether the report can close the gap back above that moving average or extend the recent pullback. Because the historical five-day post-earnings drift is positive 6.04%, flow that appears aggressively one-sided into the August 19 date can create positioning-driven reversals: a strong headline beat could trigger profit-taking in short-dated calls, while a modest beat could underwhelm traders positioned for a larger move. Tracking whether implied moves expand or compress relative to the stock's post-report averages helps separate genuine directional conviction from event-premium chasing.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined read starts with the contrast between the 100% beat rate and the inconsistent next-day price reactions. ADI has beaten every quarter in this sample, yet the May 2026 and February 2026 reports produced negative next-day returns of -3.48% and -0.31%. That tells traders the setup matters as much as the result. The next EPS estimate is $3.34, well above the $3.09 just reported, so the bar has moved higher. From a technical standpoint, the current price of $371.86 sits below the 50-day EMA at $391.76, and the RSI is 41.5, neutral-to-soft but not oversold. Watch whether post-earnings price action reclaims the $391.76 area or rejects it, since that will likely define the intermediate trend more than the beat itself. Also compare the magnitude of any August 19 surprise to the recent range: the last four beats ranged from 0.9% to 6.9%, so a small positive surprise could produce a different response than a larger margin. Finally, because the average five-day drift is 6.04%, traders often look at multi-day follow-through rather than the first 30 minutes of trading.

For a deeper dive into how institutional models are pricing the August 19 event, including the complete options-flow breakdown and sector-relative expectations for semiconductors, see the full institutional verdict on Analog Devices.