ADI

How ADI Has Traded Around Earnings

Analog Devices has beaten earnings estimates in all eight of its last reported quarters, a beat rate of 8/8 (100%) as of the 2026-08-03 snapshot. The average earnings surprise across those quarters is 5%. Even more notable is the after-hours-to-week drift: across those same eight quarters, ADI's average 5-day price move following earnings is 6.04% higher, classified as an "up" drift. That means the stock has historically absorbed the immediate headline reaction and then pushed higher over the following week.

Recent reports illustrate the pattern in detail. On 2026-05-20, ADI reported $3.09 EPS versus a $2.89 estimate — a 6.9% surprise — and the stock dipped 3.48% the next day before rising 5.27% over the next five sessions. On 2025-11-25, the 0.9% surprise ($2.26 vs. $2.24) still produced a 2.34% next-day gain and a 10.4% five-day run. The only modest next-day decline in the last four prints was the 0.31% drop on 2026-02-18, when ADI delivered a 6.5% surprise; five days later it was up 4.17%. While past statistics do not determine future outcomes, the 100% beat rate combined with the 6.04% average post-earnings upward drift shows that, mechanically, ADI has rewarded patience more than it has rewarded overnight reaction chasing.

Options-Flow Dynamics Ahead of the August 19 Report

The next scheduled report is before market open on 2026-08-19, with a published consensus EPS estimate of $3.34. Heading into that print, options flow and implied volatility will be reset by traders trying to price the risk of another beat. Because the stock has beaten in every one of the last eight quarters, the options market may already be pricing in a non-trivial probability of outperformance. The unofficial consensus — what active money is actually positioned for — can run ahead of the published $3.34 if positioning data shows elevated call interest or put skew into the report.

With the current price at $367.41, the 50-day EMA sitting at $386.95, and RSI at 42.6, ADI is technically below its intermediate moving average and not overbought. Options traders often look at how much implied volatility gets embedded into the front-month straddle relative to the 5.27% to 10.4% one-week realized ranges shown in recent reports. If implied volatility is low relative to those historical post-report moves, the cost of owning event risk looks cheaper; if implied volatility is elevated, the market is already charging a premium for the same binary outcome. The key is not the direction of the flow, but the asymmetry between expected move and the 6.04% historical drift.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined approach treats the 100% beat rate and the 6.04% average 5-day drift as context, not as a trading signal. Traders typically watch whether the stock sells off on the headline despite another beat — the 2026-05-20 case, where ADI beat by 6.9% and fell 3.48% the next day, is a textbook example. That sequence created a 5.27% five-day recovery. A trader watching this specific pattern might monitor whether the post-earnings price holds the pre-report range, whether volume confirms the reversal, and whether implied volatility contracts after the news — all without forecasting direction.

Heading into the August 19 before-open report, the 5.1% to 6.9% surprise band over the last three quarters suggests the market's real expectation is for something above the $3.34 consensus if positioning is already leaning long. The 0.9% beat in November 2025 shows that even a marginal beat can produce a large 10.4% five-day move, so the magnitude of surprise is only one input. The combination of RSI at 42.6, distance from the 50-day EMA, and the historical tendency for upside drift gives traders a framework for gauging whether post-report price action is diverging from the established pattern.

For a deeper dive into how institutional desks are positioned ahead of the August 19 report — including flow concentration, implied volatility term structure, and consensus dispersion around the $3.34 estimate — review the full institutional verdict on the ticker page.